After America’s unceremonious evacuation from Afghanistan, another triumph by a foreign adversary would put Biden’s Democratic party in a weak position ahead of already difficult mid-term congressional elections this year, not to mention the Presidential election in 2024 when the Democratic Party is likely to showcase its cast of diverse candidates, including many outstanding women, openly-gay men, people of color, and some white males. Hillary was arguably the best prepared and most qualified candidate for President since George Washington held the job. 

Biden is faced with the prospect of a terribly low poll numbers; a disaffected political base not motivated to vote; and the reality that the opposition has made every effort to cynically characterize President Biden’s prudent military choices as weakness, leadership failure, and national humiliation. Another Putin invasion of Ukraine will damage Biden’s political party, bolster populist demagogues like Donald Trump, and therefore poses a risk to democracy everywhere.

What will another four years of Trump mean for NATO, relations with Europe, Macron’s European and African agendas, and most importantly, the billions of people living in the Southern hemisphere who are already suffering from the effects of climate change.  

Losing Ukraine means losing years in the fight against climate change. We cannot afford to lose this fight.  We have a responsibility—particularly in the West—to protect and serve those living in countries without the means to fight rising sea levels, severe weather, drought, famine, pandemics and many other adverse consequences that will result in tens of thousands of deaths; incalculable sums of human misery; forced migration and more dead bodies washing up on the shores of the Mediterranean Sea, which has already become a mass grave and a shameful symbol of Europe’s failure to extend its values to refugees of a darker skin complexion. 

And yes, America has put children in cages and behaves in a contemptible manner towards our fellow inhabitants of the American continents. We are no longer worthy of receiving the gift of our Statue of Liberty—we cage children, demonize brown-skinned immigrants, and are afraid of our own shadows.

   With enthusiastic supporters in the West who consider Putin as their "Anti-Woke" plutocratic defender of traditional barbarism and imperial superiority, Putin and his allies in Europe and around the world are together transforming Europe and America into the New Balkans. 

Except the disaster in Europe is entirely a Putin-inflicted European contrivance that has high risk of contagion for neighboring countries—starting with a humanitarian crisis caused by Russia’s invasion that is likely to transform central Europe into a Somali- or Sudan-style conflict zone and humanitarian crisis.  

Remarkably, the EU appears to be powerless to halt Putin’s naked aggression against a country that neither poses a security threat to Russia nor presents any aspirations for anything other than peaceful relations with its much larger neighbor. Europe seems to be caught in the dichotomy of military operations OR arms negotiations and economic sanctions and nothing else. This false dichotomy cedes first-mover advantage to the adversary.

Go the Texas Way-An Independent Republic, A Model for Russia as a member of the European Union

Be like Texas—a regional powerhouse with outsized influence beyond its borders, an exceptionally large reputation. Like Russia--the largest nation by land-area but with only 150,000 million and a persistent brain-drain, Texas is an oil & gas industry mecca as well as a leader in high-technology, aerospace, and agriculture, but unlike the Moscow-centered, security state with a stagnant economy and endemic social and economic woes outside the bubbles of Moscow and Saint Petersburg, there is a higher baseline of household well-being across the state of Texas; while some areas of the state lag behind the state average--particular in rural areas--resulting in a statewide poverty rate of fourteen percent (14%), which is significantly higher than the U.S. national rate of 11.5 percent in 2022 according to the Census Bureau, unlike Russia, Texas benefits from strong in-migration of more educated people from the rest of the country while the opposite is true for Russia.  Texas serves as a model of a successful, prosperous regional powerhouse in a the U.S. Union of 50 states. Russia has the ingredients and diversity to succeed as a multi-ethnic, multi-lingual, multi-racial pluralistic free society! 

While a driver of Texan prosperity is in-migration migration of educated, affluent households, a dirty secret of Texan success is the often unacknowledged contribution of undocumented workers to the prosperity of the Texan economy. State politicians are often barbaric in their attitudes and actions toward undocumented immigrants. Yet there is ZERO doubt that the dirty secret of Texan prosperity is born on the hard labor of undocumented residents who are often demonized as freeloaders--which is a NAKED SLUR since adult undocumented (illegal entry or over-stay) are NOT ELIGIBLE FOR FEDERAL OR STATE SOCIAL WELFARE PROGRAMS. Putin demonizes immigration; but Russia needs in-migration. It's a backwards places that needs people with different ideas and expectations. 

But to  BE LIKE TEXAS, Russia must be admitted into a large union like the United States; like the European Union.

Putin must be admited to the European Union--Yes Really, the Isolation of Russia is not helpful over he long-term. 

The West cannot sit idle. Putin has to be punished by sanctions, but for the sake of the Russian people and the security of Europe and the world, we do NOT want another supreme leader of highly-weaponized North Korean hermit kingdom. Supreme leader Kim Jung Un continues to be a menace to neighbors; continues to use nuclear blackmail in exchange for financial support; continues to be supported by large powers who for the moment on balance view the supreme leaders as a useful. The utter destruction of North Korea by U.S. strategic air bombing of the peninsula--literally there were NO targets left to bomb--resulted in an isolated, utterly destroyed nation that was not rebuilt but rather newly constructed in the image of the supreme leader himself. And some have argued persuasively that flattening North Korea provided a level concrete pad for constructing a fortress-society purpose-built to resist the ouster of the ruling regime from internal security threats as well as external threats.   

 Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Belarus--All need to be admitted to the European Union. It's NOT simply about these countries meeting EU accession criteria to join the club. Regardless of some problems in these countries, Europe is SAFER and more SECURE with these countries becoming members of the club! And Putin has made clear--he will sabotage efforts to gain membership made by any state NOT already in the EU/NATO club. That is why Putin is responsible directly or as an an enabler of every single conflict in Europe for the past 20 years.

Putin, Rethinking Russia INC.

It's worth noting that the oligarch kleptocrats in Russia today are basically engaged in rent-seeking behavior--pillaging and skimming off the top of the former state-owned industries under their control. The difference in mindset between American and Russian oligarchs is that traditionally, the American oligarchs cared about their ability to wield control over wages and terms of employment, and their ability to avoid any kind of regulation on the manner in which they conducted their business, and their exploitation of the 'commons' at no cost to themselves (pollution and plundering forests and mines), and any restrictions to becoming unfettered monopolies. In general terms--for purposes of simplicity, Russian oligarchs are at best caretakers and at worst crony capitalist asset-strippers like Michael Milken and his ilk. The 19th and 20th century American oligarch industrialists often built the firms or the industries--but government regulation was imposed on their most egregious conduct that had become a strike against whatever social good had come out of their entrepreneurial effort.

Russia needs governance so it can become a magnet for immigrants. And that means a restructuring of industry that eliminates the oligarchs altogether. As the despot who can dispense (out of window) any oligarch or other (human) impediment to "transforming" the Russian economy, "CEO" Putin as Tzar of Russia INC. has the ability--although presently not the willingness-to embark on a such a restructuring of the economy. Is Putin is too old to take up the task of governance? Of leadership worthy of Peter the Great? Of a transformation of Russia on a Stalin scale but in the opposite direction chosen by Stalin?

Therefore to survive in this country, they have NO CHOICE but to work--and WORK HARD they do--in one of the largest informal economies of any state in this union.  The curse of Texas is its contrary to Christian-values landed aristocracy who believe their entitlements include a divine right to engage in exploitation, which is articulated by immigrant-bashing punditry for plutocrats. Pundits shilling for aristocratic shekels include William F. Buckley Jr. and Samuel Huntington. Both have recycled old ideas of held by an American 18th and 19th century imperialist-plantation class.   Both demonize "lower classes" including Mexican immigrants to delegitimize assertions made by recent arrivals for treatment as humans rather than as cattle. This kind of "Nativist" demonization has always been directed towards whatever masses happen to be "fresh off the boat" and searching for work in an economy where the aristocrats use fearmongering and demonization to put downward pressure on wages by disincentivizing immigrants from asserting rights or demanding rights.

In reality, Putin’s dilemma is that of the classic African dictator. 

How do I keep my life and my loot? Because Putin and his cronies looted the country, they face the possibility of prosecution, incarceration, confiscation of their assets, and the wrath of the citizenry. What Putin needs to solve for is the classic problem of dictators who have remained in power far too long—often decades. Dictators believe they cannot relinquish power without facing personal ruin. They cannot tolerate dissent even in small seemingly insignificant doses because any dissent has the inherent risk of possibly triggering mass demonstrations and revolution. There are possible solutions. One is the post-apartheid South African model of a “Truth & Reconciliation Commission.” Another example is cutting a deal for the transfer of power as appears to have happened between retiring President Yeltsin and his successor, Acting President Putin. Upon taking office, Putin immediately issued a decree stating that Mr. Yeltsin will be immune from "prosecution, arrest, bodily search and interrogation" amid a plethora of large corruption scandals coming to light.

Presently, Putin appears focus on squashing dissent and dissemination of truth within Russia and bordering states. Putin is terrified by the example of stay-at-home mom Svetlana Tikhanovskaya having almost certainly walloped nearly 30-year Belarus dictator Alexander Lukashenko in elections rigged and riddle by fraud for the sake of preserving Lukashenko’s grip on power. Putin shows his weakness by his harsh treatment of opposition leader Navalny and his family as well as other political opponents or sources of truth.  Putin shows signs of grasping at straws opportunistically to project Russian power and global relevance as well as desperation in his haste to prop up dictatorships in Syria, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. 

Putin has made Russia into the Nigeria of Europe. 

Like Nigeria, Russia is blessed with natural resources but instead of fossil fuels being a driver for prosperity, Russia is cursed due to rent-seeking behavior of corrupt officials who loot the country’s wealth; who abandon responsibility for governance and social welfare needs of their population; and who set up and reinforce fundamentally un-democratic governance systems designed to preserve their power and ability to collect rent. Putin has no domestic agenda other than jailing political adversaries and squashing any source of truth or dissidence.

Putin’s longstanding mission in Ukraine is simple---destabilize and disrupt Ukraine so the country never becomes an existential threat to the survival of his regime. What keeps Putin up at night is the possibility of Ukraine becoming a beacon for peace, prosperity, good governance, and rule of law that successfully emerged from endemic post-Soviet era corruption through successive government’s persistent, prudent reforms of law, processes, and norms. Putin’s worst nightmare is Ukraine’s success as a multi-ethnic, multi-language, Slavic-speaking, EU-oriented, democratic country that embraces civil liberties and common European values. In short, everything that Putin has failed to achieve in Russia, which will make Ukraine both an existential threat for Putin’s survival by shining a spotlight on Putin’s domestic failures as well as a shining beacon on a hill lighting the path for former Soviet republics to follow Ukraine’s example. For the sake of a good night’s sleep, Putin is willing to expend a great deal of political and economic capital to crush Ukraine’s prospects for successful integration into the EU.

Putin’s strategies for achieving his mission in Ukraine include three scenarios, with the best case scenario for Putin being total regime change:

1.     Regime change, install puppet government

2.     Suffocate Ukraine—cut off Azov sea access; annex territory; create land bridge between Crimea and Donbas region

3.     Annex more eastern territory, annex or create fake ‘separatist state’

Rather than protect majority-ethnic Russian regions, Putin’s true intention is to make sure these ethnic Russians don’t get to much of the “good life” in EU-oriented Ukraine, which would spoil Putin’s narrative that Ukraine is a backwards shithole. The last thing Putin wants is for ethnic Russians who are citizens of Ukraine to be WhatsApp-ing their family in the Russian Federation about how wonderful life is in Ukraine. Putin has adopted a strategy of removing large ethnic-Russian populations from toxic exposure to potential peace, prosperity, and democracy in Ukraine.  

Sudetland sound familiar? Majority ethnic population. Border area? Defensive positions in the event of war with a much larger neighbor. Threats to unleash a European war unless demands met? 

Besides the Donbas region and Sudetenland in 1938, where else might we find areas with large ethnic populations that spread across national boundaries of a large neighbor? Let us add Putin’s claim for Ukraine as territory historically belonging to Russia and lacking any precedent for its sovereignty as if these claims hold any water whatsoever as the basis for denying citizens of Ukraine their internationally recognized right of self-determination and Ukraine’s globally recognized status as a sovereign nation—not a hostage to its larger neighbor.  For the sake of argument, we will pretend Putin is exempt from international law forbidding his unprovoked invasion and transformation of central Europe into a Sudan-style massive conflict zone and humanitarian crisis. 

California—the new Sudetenland. Two excellent examples of states that meet Putin’s criteria of having large ethnic populations and historic territorial ties to large neighbors are the border states of California and Texas.  Mexico could make credible allegations about concerns over human rights abuses, including government-sponsored caging of children, separation of mothers and children seeking asylum, wage and other employment discrimination and exploitation against agricultural workers, and much more. Frankly, I am in favor of returning both states to Mexico free-of-charge. No need to pay for it. Losing this territory is a small price to pay for ridding America of Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and FaceBook CEO Mark Zuckerberg of the meta-verse. 

This is not 1938. Europe cannot give Putin a discounted-sanction pass for invading a sovereign nation in Europe—which is off limits as a playground for Cold War-era proxy wars. We don’t have much time. Putin believes he controls the chess board—NATO’s broadcasting of Putin’s plans in advance are helpful.  RT is effectively planting propaganda for Putin’s menu of possible pretenses for invasion. We must checkmate Putin or invasion is inevitable.

Timeline for sinking of USS Maine | Library of Congress

Jan 24, 1898 -President William McKinley sends the battleship USS Maine to Havana to protect U.S. interests in Cuba.

Feb 15, 1898 -The Maine explodes in Havana Harbor, killing 266 men.

Mar 25, 1898 -An inquiry conducted by the U.S Navy concludes that the explosion was caused by the detonation of a mine under the ship.

Apr 19-20, 1898 -The U.S. Congress adopts a joint resolution for war with Spain and sends an ultimatum to the Spanish government.

Apr 21, 1898 -The U.S. orders a blockade of Cuba.

Apr 23, 1898  -Spain declares war on the United States, and the U.S. Congress responds on April 25 by issuing a formal declaration of war.

1898, Sinking of U.S.S. Maine. The original U.S. invasion script was produced at the height of ‘yellow’ sensational storytelling by the press in 1898 by publisher William Hearst, who used his newspapers, movies, and cinemas to promote war against Spain. For Hearst and Putin alike, there is no distinction between truth and lies, news and fiction, objective facts and opinion or alternatives to facts (aka bullshit).  Hearst was not encumbered by today’s professional journalistic standards applicable to what viewers and proponents of ‘fake media’ pejoratively call ‘mainstream media’ otherwise known as real journalism. U.S. democracy depends on truth-telling by the New York Times. In contrast, Hearst had no hesitation about using any available pretense for promoting war.  Attributing an explosion that sank the U.S.S. Maine in Havana Harbor to Spanish-sponsored saboteurs was merely a convenient cover story.  Three months later, the 1st United States Volunteer Cavalry—known as Teddy’s “Rough Riders”—landed on Cuban shores under the command of Teddy Roosevelt, who would later be elected President.

USS Liberty attack by Israeli Forces (8 June 1967)

Deliberately Killing Americans in International Waters

On June 8 1967 the USS Liberty, while Israel was in the fourth-day of a Six-Day War, an unarmed Navy technical research ship was attacked by Israeli aircraft and missile patrol boats in international waters off the coast of Egypt. The attack killed 34 and injured 171 Americans.

• Israeli claims of misidentifying the U.S. vessel are 100 percent false based on 

Dean Rusk, U.S. Secretary of State at the time of the incident, wrote: 

“I was never satisfied with the Israeli explanation. Their sustained attack to disable and sink Liberty precluded an assault by accident or some trigger-happy local commander. Through diplomatic channels we refused to accept their explanations. I didn't believe them then, and I don't believe them to this day. The attack was outrageous”  Source.

• Israeli Prime Minister: David Ben Gurion

• Defense Minister: Moshe Dayan (possible ordered attack due to the Liberty’s jamming of Israeli communications)

National Security Archives | U..S.S. Liberty

USS_Liberty_incident | Wikipedia

The Godfather Makes an Offer You Must Refuse. Once Putin’s terms are refused, he can claim his concocted historical grievances are in fact Russia’s reasonable and legitimate security concerns. He will make disingenuous claims about having negotiated in good faith but repeat absurd allegations about the U.S./NATO defensive alliance proving itself once again to be a hostile military threat to Russia’s security.  Putin will deflect any discussion about the fact that he has ordered every military invasion in Europe over the past two decades. Finally, Putin’s political farce closes with a nod to his domestic audience, which entails blaming the U.S. for any economic woes and portraying Ukraine as the latest “instrument” in U.S. efforts to “contain” economic prosperity in Russia, which is the largest country on earth in terms of territory. Unless the U.S. is blowing up pipelines transporting natural gas of Russian origin, there is no U.S. economic containment of Russia.

Putin’s NATO strategy is thinly veiled political theater. What Putin says he wants does not matter to him. His goal in selecting non-starter terms for NATO members is for him to guarantee that his terms will indeed be refused. That is the obvious point of non-starter terms. What Putin truly wants he cannot ask for publicly—which is to strangle Ukraine’s economy, ensure failure in Ukraine’s EU accession plans; and install another puppet government. In summary, Putin’s true intentions are blatantly obvious—destabilize, disrupt, and choke Ukraine’s fledgling democracy and economic prospects.

How far will Putin go? The utter destruction of Aleppo and Grozny are examples of Putin’s willingness to strangle democratic revolutions and prop up like-minded dictators no matter how severe the costs in terms of catastrophic damages to life, property, culture, and society. An invasion on the present chessboard translates into a Syria-scale catastrophe in Central Europe designed for toppling Zelensky’s government and installing a puppet regime similar to those in occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

---Briefing prepared by Bryan Gobin, 

Feb 1, 2022

   Purpose - Personal Evaluation of Ukraine Situation